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'Geriatric technology' won't guarantee survival of nuclear power, analyst says – pv magazine International

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The latest Global Nuclear Industry Status Report estimates that nominal net nuclear capacity will drop by 0.4 GW between 2020 and 2021, despite the switch-on of six new reactors around the world last year. shows that it has decreased. As a result, the share of nuclear power in the global electricity mix fell below 10% for the first time in 40 years.

The current energy crisis caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine seems to have given the global nuclear energy industry some oxygen with the commissioning of six new reactors last year. 0, compared to 6 in 2019.

According to the latest annual Global Nuclear Industry Situation Report published by French nuclear consultant Mikle Schneider, three of the six reactors are in China and the remaining three are in China. in India, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates.

“last In terms of power generation and construction starts, this year has been a little better,” Schneider said. pv magazine“In 2021, six reactors were commissioned, but closure decisions were made for ten reactors, two of which have not generated any electricity since 2018, so our statistics go back to 2018. It’s closed.”

He said the slight upward trend does not represent a global recovery.

“Ten construction has started in 2021, including six in China and four in Russia, double the five in 2020, including four in China and one in Russia. In the first half of 2022, there will be three construction starts worldwide, all in China. And outside of China, absolutely nothing is happening, except for some projects in Russia – and who knows what impact the sanctions will have, even if the nuclear sector has been excluded so far. I don’t know either.

Schneider acknowledged that there is a great deal of pressure to extend life due to the current energy crisis, and there have been some consequences, for example in Belgium and California. said it may not be enough to help recover. Nominal net nuclear power generation Power generation capacity decreased by 0.4 or more GW for 2021.

“Geriatric technology cannot guarantee the survival of nuclear-powered species,” he said.

In the report, Schneider and his team of experts revealed: there Over the last 20 years, there have been 98 start-ups and 105 nuclear plant shutdowns.

“Of which, 50 The startup is in China and closed nothing Reactor,” said the team. “In this way, there was a net outside of China. Reduced by 57 units over the same period.Net Capacity decreased by 25 GW. “

There are currently 411 nuclear reactors We operate in 33 countries. That’s 7 credits, 4 credits less than last year. fewer than in 1989 and 27 fewer than the 2002 peak of 438.

Nuclear production is It was 3.9% in 2021, slightly below 2019 levels,” the report said. “For the second year in a row, China produced more nuclear power than France, and it continues to do so. It is the second largest nuclear power plant after the United States. “

Comparing the 2021 trajectory of nuclear power to the totaled $366 billion. This is 15 times the investment made for construction. Nuclear power plant reached 8.8GW last year.

Analysts, citing recent figures for US-based Lazard, said: Between In 2009 and 2021, the levelized cost of electricity for large-scale solar and wind power will fall by 90% and 72% respectively, while nuclear power will rise by 36%.

By 2021, wind and solar alone will reach a 10.2% electricity share For the first time, supplying more than 10% of the world’s electricity, The contribution of nuclear energy fell to 9.8%,” they said. “Nuclear share is less than 10% For the first time in 40 years. “

The report also presents data on individual countries, potential emerging countries, decommissioning of existing plants, and the current state of small modular reactor technology. Also included is a chapter on the difficult decommissioning of the Fukushima reactors in Japan and a new section on reactor vulnerabilities during war.

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