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September 2022 Business Optimism Falls: Poll

Business optimism is down in September 2022 compared to August 2022, according to an ongoing poll by Verdict, as businesses express concerns about rising inflation and its impact on the economy as a whole. did.

The verdict is conducting a poll to explore trends in business optimism during COVID-19, reflected in companies’ views on future growth prospects amid the pandemic.

An analysis of poll responses recorded in September 2022 shows that optimism about future growth prospects fell by 2 percentage points to 60%, down from 62% in August 2022. increase.

Optimistic respondents fell to 24% from 26% in August, while very optimistic respondents remained unchanged at 36% in September.

Pessimistic respondents increased by 1 percentage point to 11% in September, while very pessimistic respondents decreased by 2 percentage points to 13% from 15% in August.

Neutral (neither optimistic nor pessimistic) respondents increased three percentage points to 16%, up from 13% in August.

This analysis is based on 373 responses received from readers of the Verdict Network site between September 1 and September 30, 2022.

Australian business confidence drops to lowest level since April 2020

Seasonally Adjusted S&P Global Australian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped from 53.8 in August to 53.5 in September. Findings showed the health of the Australian manufacturing sector improved over the month, but the overall pace of growth slowed.

Declining employment rates due to employment issues, poor vendor performance due to supply chain disruptions, and a notable decline in pre-production inventory levels were the main reasons attributed to the slowdown in growth.

The PMI also showed business optimism reached its lowest level since April 2020, largely due to concerns related to the cost of living crisis and the impact of inflation on the economy.

Rising inflation in Spain and Poland impacts business confidence

Seasonally Adjusted S&P Global Spain Manufacturing PMI® It dropped from 49.9 in August to 49 in September. The decline was attributed to lower production and new orders caused by high inflation and declining demand. As a result, business confidence about the future has slipped into negative territory in an uncertain economic climate characterized by high inflation and low consumption.

Confidence in the Polish manufacturing sector remained weak, as shown by the S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI.® well below September’s 50 unchanged mark. The slowdown was due to lower production volumes and a historically high rate of new orders. Business confidence was low as rising energy prices accelerated input cost inflation for the first time since his March. Employment levels fell for the fourth time in a row as companies were forced to cut jobs to cut costs.

Optimism declines across major sectors in Italy, Latvia and Germany

Italy’s business optimism fell to 105.2 in September from 109.2 in August, according to the Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The Market Service Confidence Index fell to 95.9 from 103.0 and confidence in manufacturing fell to 101.3 from 104 as expectations of future orders fell. Retail confidence also fell to 110.6 from 113.4. Compared to the previous month, respondents were more pessimistic about current business trends and future sales.

Business confidence indicators in Latvia remained negative across all sectors for the fourth straight month in September 2022, according to data from a business survey conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CSB). Construction, services and manufacturing indicators continued to decline in September. Decreased compared to August due to lack of demand, soaring prices of energy resources, labor shortage, etc. The construction industry was -17.2, down 1.6 points from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry was -8.4, down 2.7 points from the previous month.

German economic optimism fell to 84.3 points in September from 88.6 points in August, according to the ifo business climate index. The index hit its lowest level since May 2020, impacting all four of the country’s major sectors including manufacturing, services, trade and construction. Businesses assess the current situation as clearly worsening. Pessimism about the coming months has also increased, with retailer expectations hitting an all-time low.

Belgium and the Czech Republic see a sharp decline in business confidence

According to the monthly business survey conducted by the National Bank of Belgium, confidence in Belgium fell sharply from -5.8 in August to -11.8 in September. Business conditions deteriorated in all surveyed activity sectors, except for the construction sector, where indicators remained substantially stable. Business leaders were less optimistic about order status and employment prospects.

According to the NR Business Cycle Survey conducted by the Czech Statistical Office, the Czech Republic’s confidence index fell by 3.3 points to 93.6 in September. Confidence in the economy among industrial entrepreneurs fell for the fourth time. However, the number of entrepreneurs dissatisfied with the current aggregate demand remained constant.

Inflation and political unrest hurt UK confidence

The Institute of Director’s (IoD) Economic Confidence Index, which measures optimism among UK business leaders, rose slightly to -43 in September. However, the confidence index for their own business prospects fell to +20 from +28 in August. Business leaders said inflation in the UK and political instability in the UK government were the main reasons for their pessimism.

Overall business confidence, as measured by Lloyds Bank’s business barometer, stabilized in September after falling for three consecutive months between June and August. However, in the North West and Yorkshire and Humber regions, business confidence fell by 14% and 11% respectively. Confidence remained below the national average in other parts of the UK, including the South West, East Midlands, Northern Ireland, East England and Wales.

Canadian SME confidence drops slightly

According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) Business Barometer, short- and long-term SME confidence fell to 49.5 in September, just 0.5 percentage points lower than in August.® Short term index. An index above 50 indicates that management expects stronger performance.

The overall business situation is unchanged from August, with full-time hiring plans stalling for the next three to four months. Most provinces in Canada had grim forecasts of below 50 for his next three to four months. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, in their mid-50s, were the most optimistic.

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